Winning your conferences is more important than ever, as the five highest-ranked conference champions all receive automatic bids to the 12-team College Football Playoff. So which teams could make a surprise push for a conference title in 2025? Here’s a look at a dark horse conference title contender for every FBS conference.
ACC — North Carolina
North Carolina was picked to finish eighth in the ACC without a single first-place vote. However, the Tar Heels could rise quickly in year one of the Bill Belichick era.
Belichick comes in as the greatest head coach in NFL history with six Super Bowl titles. Yet, he might not be the most important coach on the staff to UNC making a run at the ACC title. That coach would be his son, Steve Belichick.
Steve Belichick was the defensive coordinator at Washington last year, where he led the No. 2 pass defense in all of FBS football. The 166.5 passing yards per game allowed were the fewest in the Big Ten as the Husky defense also led the conference in opposing completion percentage. All signs point to the UNC defense being vastly improved, especially with the No. 3 transfer portal class in the ACC coming in.
On the offensive side of the ball, the addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez should bolster the group. Lopez led South Alabama to the No. 2 total offense in the Sun Belt last season and brings experience to the Tar Heel locker room.
North Carolina also plays a favorable ACC schedule, avoiding Miami, SMU, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, Pitt and Virginia Tech. Of the top-11 preseason teams in the ACC, UNC plays only three teams, with Duke at home and NC State not until the end of the season.
The other top-11 team UNC plays is Clemson. However, the Tar Heels play the Tigers at home after a bye week. A favorable schedule could be the reason North Carolina makes a run at the ACC title.
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American — South Florida
South Florida saw its star quarterback Byrum Brown go down with an injury, but the dynamic dual-threat signal caller is back this fall. As he returns, so do USF’s American title hopes. Brown plus weapons Cartevious Norton and Keshaun Singleton give the Bulls a potent offense.
South Florida also avoids playing Tulane — an American conference favorite — this year and gets UTSA at home off of a bye week. That’s a schedule that could see the Bulls make a run at a conference title.
Big 12 — Baylor
The Big 12 decided to stop doing a preseason media poll after Arizona State won the title in 2024 after being selected last in the preseason. That makes it a bit harder to pick a true dark horse in the conference, but Big 12 championship game participants from last year Arizona State and Iowa State are out of the running. As are any Big 12 teams that finished 2024 ranked in the AP or CFP rankings like BYU or Colorado. I’ll also leave out Kansas State as the Wildcats are a Big 12 contender year in and year out.
That said, my dark horse Big 12 title pick is Baylor. Baylor won six straight regular season games to close 2024 and return quarterback Sawyer Robertson and preseason First Team All-Big 12 running back Bryson Washington. Four starters are also back on the offensive line, giving Baylor all of the makings of a title-winning offense. It’ll all come down to the defense for Baylor, but with a talented offense, the Bears could win a shootout.
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Big Ten — Illinois
When I made my way-too-early College Football Playoff predictions back in January, I had four Big Ten teams in the bracket. The fourth highest-seeded team in that bracket was Illinois — and I’m still high on the Fighting Illini entering the year.
Illinois plays Ohio State at home while avoiding Oregon and Penn State in conference play. While back-to-back games in September at Indiana and vs. Southern California won’t be easy, I think the Illini will be the better team.
Illinois won 10 games last year. It returns preseason All-Big Ten quarterback Luke Altmeyer and talent at every level of the defense with Gabe Jacas, Dylan Rosiek and Xavier Scott. The Fighting Illini could make a push for the Big Ten title this fall.
Conference USA — UTEP
UTEP is the dark horse pick in Conference USA. Quarterback remains a question mark for now as the starter could be transfer Malachi Nelson or returnee Skyler Locklear. However, there are weapons surrounding whoever starts.
Wide receiver Kenny Odom had eight touchdowns last year, and running back Hahsaun Wilson transferred in from Charlotte to bolster the ground attack.
On defense, KD Johnson and Derek Burns return up front, while transfers Micah Davey and Ashaad Hall look to carry FCS success into the CUSA.
Another factor to play into the pick here is that UTEP gets Liberty, Jacksonville State and Louisiana Tech (three of the top four preseason CUSA team) all at home.
MAC — Buffalo
Buffalo received zero first place votes after a season where it finished 6-2 in MAC play. Of the three teams voted in front of the Bulls in the MAC preseason poll, Buffalo plays two, getting Miami (Ohio) and Ohio at home to close the season. Bowling Green is the only other team on the schedule for Buffalo from the top half of the preseason poll. The schedule aligns for a conference championship run in Buffalo.
When it comes to the players, the Bulls return plenty of starters on both offense and defense, including running back Al-Jay Henderson. The biggest question facing the Bulls will be at the quarterback position, but with returnees elsewhere, Buffalo can overcome any early season struggles.
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Mountain West — Colorado State
Colorado State was picked to finish fourth in the Mountain West during the preseason. The Rams didn’t have a single player listed on the preseason All-Mountain West team. That doesn’t mean CSU won’t have a chance this fall.
Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is back — as are his 6,450 career passing yards. He helped lead Colorado State to wins in six of their last seven conference games last fall to cary momentum into the season.
With games against UNLV and Boise State not coming until November, Colorado State could build up for a Mountain West title run and peak at the right time.
SEC — Ole Miss
After finishing No. 11 in the final AP Poll and No. 14 in the CFP rankings, Ole Miss came in only seventh in the SEC’s predicted order of finish this year. The Rebels are being slept on entering the year.
While offensive mastermind Lane Kiffin is the head coach at Ole Miss, it’s the defense that intrigues me entering the year. Suntarine Perkins is back after a 10.5-sack season, and he’ll be joined by Da’Shawn Womack on the edge as he transfers in from LSU. Defensive lineman Zxavian Harris and linebacker Princewill Umanmielen joined Perkins as preseason All-SEC honorees.
Ole Miss will be able to get after the quarterback this fall, and a retooled secondary, highlighted by Arkansas transfer and former Freshman All-SEC cornerback Jaylon Braxton, should hold their own.
The offense has the biggest question mark entering the fall with quarterback Austin Simmons replacing Jaxson Dart, but I expect Lane Kiffin to work his magic there.
When it comes to the schedule, the Rebels get LSU, South Carolina and Florida at home this year. Road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma will be tough, but there’s a world where Ole Miss finishes with at most two losses in a parity-filled SEC.
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Sun Belt — Arkansas State
Continuity is important in college football, and the Sun Belt saw a number of its teams ravaged by the transfer portal. However, Arkansas State retained some of its top talent, which could lead the Red Wolves to a run at a conference title.
Arkansas State was predicted to finish third in the Sun Belt West division, receiving just one first place vote. However, I think Arkansas State has what it takes to win the division.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor returns, as does preseason all-conference wide receiver Corey Rucker and running back Ja’Quez Cross. That might end up being the best trio in the Sun Belt. While the defense lost a lot of pieces during the offseason, defensive end Bryan Whitehead does return.
It’ll be difficult, but the Red Wolves can challenge for the West division this fall.
